As COP31 turns to food and agriculture, LRQA’s Kimberly Carey Coffin, Global Technical Director for Supply Chain Assurance in the Food Sector, argues that the next phase of food system decarbonization will be decided by evidence.
Food is where climate change meets everyday life. It is responsible for a large share of global emissions, and it is one of the first things to feel the effects of a warming world, from failed harvests to disrupted supply routes. On the opening day of COP31, food, agriculture and health take center stage.
This year, the stakes are especially visible. One of the strongest El Niño events on record is expected to peak during COP31, threatening harvests of crops such as rice, cocoa, coffee and sugar. When supply tightens, buyers look for new sources quickly, and that is exactly when claims about where food comes from, and how it was produced, are hardest to check.
The ambition is not in doubt. Food companies have set targets, retailers have made commitments and producers are trying new practices on the ground. The harder question is whether anyone further down the chain can believe the claims being made.
Claims travel further than evidence
A bag of coffee, a bar of chocolate or a carton of milk passes through many hands before it reaches a shelf. At each stage, products are mixed, processed and repackaged. A sustainability claim made at the farm can easily be lost, diluted or exaggerated by the time it reaches the consumer.
When claims can’t be traced, two things happen. Honest producers who have invested in better practices can’t get paid for them, because their product looks the same as everyone else’s. And dishonest operators find it easy to make claims they can’t back up. Both undermine trust in the whole system.
Regulation is turning claims into obligations
That’s changing fast. On 30 December, seven weeks after COP31 opens, the EU Deforestation Regulation starts to apply to large and medium-sized companies. Anyone placing cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy or wood on the EU market will need to show that it wasn’t produced on recently deforested land, down to the plot where it was grown.
Rules like this mark a shift. Proving where food comes from is becoming a condition of selling it, as well as a matter of reputation. For many companies, the systems needed to do that are still being built.
What credible proof looks like
Independent assurance has underpinned trust in food for decades, from food safety certification to responsible sourcing audits. The same principles now need to apply to climate and nature claims.
That means checking claims against recognized standards rather than a company’s own definitions. It means evidence-backed transparency of products throughout the supply chain, so that a low-carbon or deforestation-free attribute stays attached to the product it belongs to. And it means verification by someone with no stake in the outcome.
Done well, this creates value as well as reducing risk. Producers can be rewarded for genuine improvements, buyers can make claims with confidence and consumers can make choices they believe in.
What we’ll be watching at COP31
We’ll be looking for commitments that come with a clear way of measuring progress, and for collaboration that helps smaller producers meet rising expectations rather than being shut out of markets by them.
The food system will need to change a great deal in the com
